How Trump Tariffs Could Impact Aspen & Roaring Fork Valley Real Estate | Avant Garde Aspen Luxury Real Estate

With the onset of Trump tariffs throughout 2025, the real estate world is already speculating how policy shifts might reshape the economic landscape. While tariffs might seem like more of an issue for industries like tech, agriculture, or manufacturing, they could have surprising ripple effects across high-end housing markets like Aspen and the Roaring Fork Valley.

Here’s a breakdown of what could happen—some obvious, some less so—and how savvy buyers and sellers can prepare:

1. Stock Market Volatility = Luxury Buyer Caution, but a More Favorable Market for Buyers

The Aspen real estate market has always tracked closely with Wall Street performance, and more specifically the Dow and S&P500. That’s because many buyers—whether they’re hedge fund managers, founders, CEOs, or international investors—draw liquidity from equity holdings to finance their real estate investments. When tariffs stoke fears of global slowdown or provoke retaliatory trade measures, we see huge dips in the stock market. That impacts buyer confidence and can put luxury purchases on hold.

Think of it as a luxury “pause” button—not necessarily lower prices, but slower decision-making, more caution, and longer days on market. That said, the market can be more favorable for those who are still interested in buying, as we shift from a sellers market to more of a balanced or buyer's market. 

2. The Power (or Weakness) of the U.S. Dollar

If tariffs lead to more economic uncertainty or reduced investor confidence in the U.S., the dollar could weaken. While that might concern some American buyers, this scenario could actually boost Aspen’s real estate activity in a few key ways:

• Foreign buyers or people financing their real estate purchase from money overseas, get more value for their money when converting international currencies to dollars, making Aspen homes more attractive to international investment.

• Real estate becomes a hedge against inflation and currency risk, particularly for buyers from countries facing their own instability or volatile markets.

• In markets like Aspen, where trophy properties are seen as safe, long-term stores of wealth, a weaker dollar can create urgency among global elites who panic buy or shift their wealth to other types of investments. That said, based on historic data, in times of economic instability or uncertainty in the US, we typically only see a few of these types of buyers in Aspen, not a ton. 

So paradoxically, economic instability under tariff regimes could create a slight uptick in international interest—especially if global investors eventually see U.S. real estate as the more "stable" asset and investment class for the long term, over investments like the U.S. stock market. That said, if global stock markets also start to fall, as mentioned above, overall international interest in investing in anything could come to a pause for a while. Interest rates may also go down slightly as the bond market becomes more attractive than the stock market, providing some relief to those in interest rate sensitive price points. 

3. “Hard Asset” Investment Boom

When economic policy becomes unpredictable, ultra-high-net-worth individuals tend to shift toward tangible assets. Real estate, especially in legacy luxury markets like Aspen, becomes a wealth preservation play. We may see:

• More buyers shifting out of equities and into second homes or vacation properties they can rent or hold.

• Investors acquiring multiple properties as part of a “hard asset portfolio” alongside gold, art, and other tangibles that can still withstand recessionary pressures, and potentially appreciate.

• Institutional interest in short-term luxury rentals, where cash flow can offset inflation, stagflation, and currency swings.

This could benefit sellers who own rental-ready estates or properties in top-tier locations with strong appreciation history.

4. Domestic Migration from Tariff-Impacted Industries

Tariffs could directly impact domestic businesses—particularly those in trade-sensitive industries like tech, retail, or energy. If certain regions see job losses or increased cost of living due to import taxes, we could see more domestic migration to lifestyle markets like the Roaring Fork Valley, particularly among remote workers or early retirees seeking quality of life over urban density. If the political and economic landscape becomes tumultuous, some people may choose to leave big cities for safety reasons and choose to live in more rural locations full time, like Aspen, instead. 

While this idea might be a stretch—we may see new buyers entering Aspen not just for vacation, but for full-time living, especially from coastal markets like California or New York where state and property taxes and cost of all goods spike under new trade policies.

5. Higher Construction Costs, Slower Development, Sell Offs

Many luxury materials—like European fixtures, imported glass, custom lighting, or high-performance windows—come from overseas. If tariffs rise, so will the cost of building or remodeling, which may:

• Slow new construction timelines in the Roaring Fork Valley.

• Cause developers and builders to delay or cancel speculative projects, leading to a future inventory crunch.

• Make existing turnkey properties even more valuable and increase their demand, due to scarcity of comparable new builds.

• Make it harder for homes in the Roaring Fork Valley that need a large scale renovation or remodel, to sell. 
• Cause people who already own homes in the valley, that are starting to struggle financially, to delay remodel projects for years or decades into the future.
• Some people may opt to take on more DIY projects instead of hiring professional contractors for work to be completed, causing potential long term problems in homes.
• As of today, April 7th, we have already seen a sell off of a Red Mountain project home owned by Restoration Hardware, whose stock dropped 40% in the last week. They will still be making money on their investment, but this could be a start of a larger trend, where corporations who own homes that are hit hard by tariffs may begin to sell of - or alternatively, those homes that are taking too long to get through Pitkin County / City of Aspen approvals for demolition, additions, or remodeling, will see a sell off, as individuals and corporations move their money into other investments because renovations are taking too long. 

Sellers of newer or recently remodeled homes could benefit greatly from this inelasticity.

6. Shift Toward Off-Market and Discreet Deals

In uncertain political or economic climates, luxury buyers often prefer privacy and flexibility. We could see a rise in:

• Off-market transactions, especially among international buyers navigating complex tax and transfer scenarios.

• Requests for creative deal structures—like cryptocurrency transactions, longer escrows, more 1031 exchanges or contingent offers, continued commission negotiations, or dual-currency pricing.

• More trust and LLC-based ownership to protect assets across borders.

Buyers and sellers may need brokers who understand not just real estate, but financial strategy, tax implications, and international capital flow.

Aspen’s Resilience in a Shifting World

Tariffs and international economic policies may feel distant, but their impact on luxury real estate is very real. Whether it's volatility in the stock market, fluctuations in currency strength, or shifts in investor psychology, Aspen's real estate market is deeply tied to broader economic forces.

But here's the upside: Aspen has a history of resilience over long periods of time and the ultra high net worth individuals are sometimes protected from recessions and economic instability when compared to average homeowners. Limited inventory, world-class lifestyle, and global brand prestige insulate it better than most markets. For sellers, this is a time to position your property as a stable investment in an unpredictable world. For buyers, it’s an opportunity to lock in long-term value in one of the most iconic mountain destinations on the planet.

Curious how these macroeconomic tariff trends could affect your real estate plans? Let’s connect and talk strategy. I offer data-backed insights and local expertise to help you make confident decisions—no matter what the market throws our way. Reach out today - Stephanie Kroll, 303.345.5886.